Global oil demand will increase from 95 to 106 million barrels per day between 2017 and 2040, which means it will rise by 11.5%, despite an increase of 80% in the number of cars (passenger, sports, and trucks) that will reach 2 billion.
The country is advancing in the diversification of its energy sources, the quality of liquid fuels is improving.
Francisco José Lloreda
The difference is explained by the efficiency in combustion engines, which would translate into a savings of 9 million barrels per day, and the increase in alternative sources – electricity, biofuels, and natural gas – which is expected to allow for an additional savings of 7.5 million barrels daily.
The same would not happen with the demand for oil from trucks, a segment that is expected to grow by 4 million barrels per day, after subtracting 5.5 million due to efficiency in their engines and logistics (otherwise the oil demand from these vehicles would have been 9.5 million).
This is the medium demand scenario for oil in the transport sector, projected by the International Energy Agency in its World Energy Outlook 2018 report.
In that scenario, the share of this sector in oil demand will be 541MT. The 211MT will be from cars, 181MT from trucks, and 151MT from aviation and maritime. That is, no significant changes are expected; the difference is that although oil demand will grow, it will be lower when compared to the increase in vehicles, mainly for efficiency reasons.
This context is key when looking at Colombia, especially regarding the demand for hydrocarbons from the transport sector. According to the Mining and Energy Planning Unit, UPME, the demand for fuels in our country in 2017 was 385,934 barrels per day of which 58,554 were imported (151MT).
The consumption of liquid fuels that year was as follows: 411MT diesel, 371MT gasoline, 91MT jet fuel, 71MT LPG, 31MT biodiesel, and 31MT ethanol.
The demand for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel has increased progressively. For example, the consumption of gasoline and diesel grew by 31MT during 2018, and so far in 2019 by 41MT. Meanwhile, the demand for jet fuel has grown at a rate exceeding 51MT annually. This higher consumption has also required greater imports of fuels.
Furthermore, UPME projects that in the next 15 years, the consumption of liquid fuels will continue to increase, although at a slightly more moderate pace (of almost 21% in gasoline and 11% in diesel). A higher consumption that will translate, given the capacity of the refineries, into greater imports from Ecopetrol and third parties.
This data becomes more relevant when analyzing the automotive fleet, which mainly depends on ACPM and gasoline. According to the National Transport Registry, RUNT, the country's automotive fleet is nearly 15 million vehicles, of which 57% are motorcycles – and it is expected to continue growing. It is also important to know that the average age of the entire fleet is 16 years and 21 for cargo vehicles, as the latter are the ones that pollute the most along with transport vehicles, due to their high obsolescence.
An analysis by postdoctoral researcher Mónica Espinosa from the Faculty of Engineering at the Universidad de Los Andes on the environmental externalities of urban transport indicates that the main source of pollutant emissions in Bogotá is cargo transport with 42%, followed by public collective and special passenger transport with 28%, and the SITP with 9%.
Campers and vans contribute 81%, motorcycles 71%, private cars 41%, and taxis 21%. That is, cargo transport and the different passenger modalities are responsible for 79% of pollutant emissions.
Although this data refers to Bogotá, it is not very different from other urban centers. It is key because the majority of urban pollution is contributed by cargo and passenger transport vehicles, and these are in turn the oldest.
If we recall the prospective analysis by the IEA, it indicates that for the purpose of consuming less oil, greater efficiency in combustion engines is more effective than the introduction of new energy sources, and this is achieved by renewing the automotive fleet.
That is, if we want to reduce the pollution caused by fine particulate matter in large cities, the solution lies in disincentivizing the longevity of vehicles, especially those for cargo and public transport.
It is necessary then to scrap old buses and trucks, that older vehicles pay more taxes than new ones – today it is the other way around – and to switch the entire public transport fleet to natural gas and electric.
The good news is that the country is advancing in the diversification of its energy sources, the quality of liquid fuels is improving every day, and there are new mobility models. There is also an Electric Mobility Law that encourages electric cars; the important thing is that this electricity is generated from clean sources.
In the Colombian case, most electricity is produced with hydroelectric energy and natural gas, meaning we have a very clean electrical matrix. The bad news is that if we do not do something about cargo and transport vehicles, especially the old ones, we will have lost the year.
Colombian Association of Oil and Gas