Let's prepare today for Colombia's energy tomorrow with data in hand

Colombia is at a turning point in its energy policy.

Between 2022 and 2024, it is estimated that the oil, gas, and liquid fuels sector contributed nearly 1.170 trillion, between 201 and 321 trillion of the Government's current revenues. In 2024, oil and its derivatives represented 30% of exports and more than 16% of foreign direct investment. In royalties alone, more than 8.2 trillion pesos were generated in 2024. However, since 2022, no new exploration contracts have been awarded, and according to the ANH, proven reserves amount to 7.2 years of oil and 5.9 of gas.

Furthermore, Colombia already imports between 35% and 40% of the gasoline it consumes, and so far in 2025, 170 million cubic feet of gas have been imported on average, which is approximately 17% of national demand. Although it is possible to increase production by optimizing existing contracts, the trend demands structural decisions.

We know that this Government will not reactivate exploration, but that should not translate into passivity. This is the time to prepare the conditions for a robust energy future, aligned with our sustainability and development goals.

Two actions are urgent:

1. Build a state energy policy. Norway offers a valuable lesson: there, a political consensus was achieved on three pillars —technical autonomy, fiscal transparency, and long-term vision— which allowed for responsible resource management. The result: a sovereign fund of more than 1.7 trillion euros and an increasingly clean energy matrix. Colombia must define its own path, and regardless of who wins the presidential elections in 2026, begin building a consensus on the Energy Transition, with plural participation and the capacity to design a realistic roadmap to 2050.
2. Plan today for tomorrow's growth. Although no new contracts will be awarded in the short term, it is vital to continue updating areas with potential, review appropriate technical and environmental criteria, and prepare a consultation framework with communities that works. Natural gas must occupy a strategic place as a transitional energy source. To this end, it is urgent to optimize environmental licensing processes, and especially the prior consultation, which requires optimization and is currently, in some regions, subject to abuses; in addition to generating high fiscal, economic, and social costs for all involved parties.

International experience offers warnings. In Argentina, during Kirchnerism, tariffs were frozen, unsustainable subsidies were imposed, and price controls were enacted. The result was the exit of companies, disinvestment, and loss of energy self-sufficiency. Only with the return to a technical approach in Vaca Muerta did recovery begin.

Even in the midst of urgency, we can anticipate. The time to act is now, with evidence in hand and a vision for the country.