Colombia needs new supply sources to increase its reserves and ensure its energy self-sufficiency
The results of the 2024 Resources and Reserves Report from the ANH reaffirm the critical situation in which the country finds itself regarding oil and gas reserves. However, there are some noteworthy aspects, such as the stability in proven oil reserves and the significant increase in contingent gas resources, thanks to the technical work among sector actors and the leadership of the ANH.
These achievements, although valuable, remain insufficient in the face of challenges. It is essential to make timely decisions that stimulate exploration, strengthen investment, and ensure a reliable energy horizon for all Colombians.
OIL
Proven oil reserves for 2024 were 2.035 billion barrels (MBl), 0.74% higher than those of 2023 (2.020 MBl), due to the incorporated reserves managing to replace the volume produced during the year and generate a small surplus of 15 MBl (equivalent to 19 days of production). Therefore, the reserves/production factor remains practically stable, increasing from 7.1 in 2023 to 7.2 for 2024.
The increase in the incorporation of reserves is highlighted, due to enhanced recovery production and incremental production, which for 2024 totaled 60 MBl, more than triple what was incorporated in 2023 (19 MBl). While it is true that these measures increase proven reserves, they also accelerate the consumption of available resources. In practice, this means we ‘consume’ the pantry more quickly and, therefore, the total volumes are reduced.
This is why it is concerning that the total reserves (proven, probable, and possible) have fallen by 3.9% from 3.218 MBl to 3.092 MBl. Contingent resources also decreased by 13%, as some of them were reclassified as reserves.
All of the above reflects a technical effort by the ANH and the Interinstitutional Committee with the industry to convert resources into recoverable reserves. However, it highlights the urgent need to find new supply sources that allow for an increase in the total volume of available reserves in the medium and long term.
GAS
Total gas reserves (proven, probable, and possible) have been steadily declining since 2012, with the exception of 2021, when the closure of some fields and the drop in demand allowed for a slight increase.
Proven reserves (the most certain ones to supply the country) recorded a drop of 13% compared to 2023 and a 57% decrease compared to 2014. The low replacement rate is concerning as we are not managing to significantly replenish the gas we consume. In 2024, 351 GPC (Billion cubic feet) were marketed, but only 42 GPC were added, meaning that for every 10 cubic feet produced, only 1.2 new ones were added.
Furthermore, the largest additions continue to come from projects linked to oil and condensate production, such as incremental production and enhanced recovery, not from new dry gas developments.
It is worth highlighting the increase in contingent resources by 48% compared to 2023, reaching 11 TPC (trillion cubic feet), equivalent to more than five times the current proven reserves. Of these resources, 67% are located offshore and are the result of over 20 years of work in the different gas provinces of the Colombian Caribbean. However, these resources are not yet available; their development is conditioned on overcoming environmental, social, technical, and economic contingencies.
IT IS TIME TO ACT
The evidence is clear; in gas reserves, Colombia is not replenishing all that it consumes, and in oil, it barely manages to replenish it, which is reducing the total inventory of available resources. This trend puts the country's energy security at risk and its ability to ensure reliable supply to homes, businesses, and industries. We urgently and proactively call on the national government to stimulate exploration and strengthen investment, with competitive contractual conditions, management of contingencies that limit project development, and clear signals of legal security, regulatory stability, and public order in the regions.
Colombian Association of Oil and Gas