Oil and gas have been a source of energy and a driving force for the development of modern society. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the world will continue to demand hydrocarbons for the next few decades, and according to its projections, the peak demand will occur in 2030. From that year onwards, its share within the energy supply decreases, even though the volumes remain at relevant levels.
In Colombia, according to the National Energy Plan 2022-2052 (PEN), some energy prospecting scenarios foresee increases in consumption ranging from 15% to 30% by 2032. Therefore, amid the search for a just energy transition, which no one has defined, the country must think in terms of energy self-sufficiency.
The marginal cost curves for abatement in Colombia show a likely scenario of gradual transition, in which resources from the sector can be used to achieve three purposes: energy transition, economic transition, and social transition.
The energy transition will allow us to gradually replace some of the current energy sources with cleaner ones. Some bottlenecks are in mineral efficiency and in the economic efficiency of current alternatives. The sectors of the economy that generate the highest greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and consume more energy and water must co-lead the transition.
In a country with poverty levels above 40%, with nearly seven million people who do not consume basic nutrients daily and with about four million people living in misery, it is essential to prioritize humanitarian and social issues. Therefore, the energy transition must prioritize resources to generate formal productive diversification in the regions, capillarity in the economic system, and formalization of local economies.
The above, implemented gradually, which allows for the generation of wealth and value in the regions, will enable us to advance in the social transition.
Thus, the three strategic initiatives: energy transition, economic transition, and social transition, are interdependent. State policies must facilitate and promote simultaneous progress on all three fronts in the coming decades.
Colombian Association of Oil and Gas