Colombian-style transition, according to Colombians

The survey conducted by the National Consulting Center for the Oil Barometer shows that Colombians have reached agreements on the fundamental aspects of the energy transition.
Jaime Arteaga,
General Director of JA&A

This year, the fifth edition of the Oil Barometer shows us something surprising (and at the same time wonderful): in the midst of such a polarized environment, Colombians have reached a deep consensus on one of the central issues for our development model: the energy transition. I am sure that, at this point, anyone reading this article will wrinkle their nose, perhaps surprised, perhaps skeptical, about this statement. The noise of the political debate does not seem to allow Colombians to share the same opinion on a matter that has generated as many debates as the energy transition.

Well, in the face of doubt, science. And it is there where the survey conducted by the National Consulting Center for the Oil Barometer, which this year reached 2,9601 people across the country (from hydrocarbon-producing and non-producing regions), shows us that Colombians have reached agreements on the fundamental aspects of the transition: 92 percent agree that the energy transition requires time to be fair; 89 percent believe that more developed countries should bear the costs of decarbonization in proportion to their contribution to greenhouse gas emissions; and 81 percent believe that a future in which oil and gas coexist with other energy sources is possible.

The mobilizing force to reach such an agreement has been none other than the conversation put on the table by the national government of President Gustavo Petro to open a debate on the path to achieving a balance between environmental and social justice, or what has been called “just transition” in other contexts. Simulating the dilemma presented to Colombians, the survey asks the thousands of participants across the country: “Thinking about Colombia's role in the global scenario, do you agree more that Colombia should suspend all oil and coal production to address global warming, or that Colombia should prioritize overcoming poverty and inequities, even if that means continuing to produce oil and coal?”.
Seven out of ten respondents state that the country's priority is to combat poverty and inequities (see illustration 1). Although false, like almost all dilemmas, Colombians have already taken a position on the matter.

In recent months, Colombians have engaged in an intense conversation around the oil and gas industry that, amid the political fray, has even been presented as a producer of death or compared to drug trafficking. The debate has placed at the center of the discussion the very reason for the existence of the sector, and the purpose that justifies the impact, large or small, that operations have for our country. The discussion has led Colombians to abandon the paradigm, transmitted through generations, of the foreign colonizer who takes our wealth to recognize, both in producing regions and at the national level, that the industry is not only necessary for state financing but also to generate opportunities for the communities where it operates (see illustration 2). The result has been something that was previously unthinkable: in the recent edition of the Oil Barometer, 8 out of 10 Colombians consider that the oil industry is positive for the country (when asked if they agree that the oil industry is positive for their municipality, it even reaches 88 percent).

This does not mean, however, that Colombians have abandoned their concerns, as the oil and gas sector, along with mining, continues to be seen as the one that most affects the environment and, when people are asked about the destination of royalties, as in previous versions, the first thing they respond is that they go to corruption or into the hands of politicians (see illustration 3). The recognition that citizens give to the oil and gas industry does not mean, then, that there are still pending conversations that will always be addressed.

It is paradoxical that public support for the oil and gas industry, an aspiration not only of this but of any other productive sector, occurs at a time when the perceived gaps between the government and companies seem infinite and impossible to close. This has had an undeniable effect on the mood of both those who work in the industry and officials who believe that this is a critical activity for national development. This is why the most important challenge is that, despite tensions and disagreements, the path is not lost, which is none other than pursuing and demonstrating every day that this is a development activity, sensitive to the environment and empathetic towards a society that demands all industries respond to a higher purpose. In this case, that of the oil and gas industry in Colombia, it is none other than building a nation that can achieve peace through social and environmental justice for all Colombians.