The ANH expects the production of about 900,000 barrels per day

Since May 2016, this daily goal has not been achieved.

In the framework of the CeraWeek energy conference in Houston, the president of the National Hydrocarbons Agency (ANH), Óscar Velandia, announced that the entity's goal for this year is to increase national production to 900,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

This figure exceeds the official government target, which is set at 840,000 barrels per day in the Medium-Term Fiscal Framework. The agency's expectation is also higher than that of the Ministry of Mines and Energy, whose head, Germán Arce, estimates that daily production would be 860,000 barrels.

According to Pedro Carmona, director of the Institute of Hydrocarbons, Mines, and Energy at Sergio Arboleda University, daily barrel production could increase due to new wells.

“Currently, production is around 850,000 barrels of oil per day; this could increase if new discoveries are made and new wells come into operation,” he said.

The academic pointed out that the recovery factor could also influence higher production. This term is understood as the amount or percentage of crude that exists in a reservoir and that can be technically recovered. It is important to mention that technically not all crude is recoverable, so there are different types of recovery. To increase this extraction, greater technology must be applied.

On the other hand, Julio César Vera, president of the Colombian Association of Petroleum Engineers (Acipet), believes that production will be above 850,000 barrels per day if the situation is normal.
“If public order problems and protests do not continue to arise, production will surely exceed that,” he expressed.

In addition, the leader added that the projects that will really be able to increase production are those of enhanced recovery and development drilling.

Another aspect that would influence the increase in the number of barrels per day is international prices. If these decrease, it is likely that production will not increase, and it is even possible that it may decrease.

The investment environment for this year must also be taken into account. According to the projections of the Colombian Petroleum Association (ACP), this year the investment estimates for exploration and production will increase for the second consecutive year, between 30% and 45% more than in 2017.

In that same report, the ACP highlights that there are opportunities to invest in Colombia. However, it points out that entrepreneurs see environmental risks and legal uncertainties that hinder operations and slow down investments, especially in exploration.

THE CONTRASTS

PEDRO CARMONA, DIRECTOR OF THE HYDROCARBONS INSTITUTE OF SERGIO ARBOLEDA UNIVERSITY
“One of the situations that can influence an increase in production is the recovery factor, as these are quantities that can be recovered.”.

“It should be added that the investment environment for the second half and beyond will depend on the next president. Some signals given by candidates from the center-left could affect sector investment if they continue against the industry or some of its activities,” concluded Vera.

New discovery of heavy crude in Meta
The company Ecopetrol announced that the presence of oil was confirmed in the Lorito-1 well, located in the department of Meta. The discovery was recorded at a depth of 2,500 meters, in tertiary age sands that total a thickness of 60 meters, equivalent to a 20-story building. This well is operated by Ecopetrol, which has 55% of participation, and Talisman Colombia Oil & Gas of Repsol, which has the remaining 45% in the Exploration and Production contract of Block CPO-9. According to the oil company, the proximity of Lorito-1 to production and transportation infrastructure will allow for the acceleration of its commercial production stage.